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Methodology

Analysis within the Building Decarbonization Calculator is comprised of three interconnected calculations for cost, whole life carbon emissions, and energy use. Methodologies for each of these is detailed in the sections which follow.

Time Series Analysis

The Building Decarbonization Calculator analyzes cost, carbon, and energy use over time. In v1.0.0 of the tool, this analysis is done on the basis of an annual average (future versions of the tool will calculate on an hourly basis).

Using time series analysis for buildings is the appropriate choice because 1) buildings are long-lived assets, 2) the value of retrofits is realized over time, and 3) the carbon emissions reductions from retrofits changes over time as electrical utilities decarbonize their generation portfolios in line with their declared targets.

Uncertainty in Time Series Analysis

Time series analysis is essential for understanding how ECCMs deliver cost and carbon reductions to particular buildings, and the future into which we make these projections is inherently uncertain. Energy prices, for instance, are inherently volatile—a reality which can be exacerbated by unexpected geopolitical events.

While we can state confidently that this uncertainty exists, quantifying this uncertainty is outside the scope of this tool. In your interpretation of the tool's results, it is recommended that you consider how much the results of the tool could be affected by future uncertainty and use your professional judgement in qualifying the results of the tool in light of this.

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Energy Use Modeling